RX100

"The real cycle you're working on is a cycle called yourself."

"In a car you're always in a compartment, and because you're used to it you don't realize that through that car window everything you see is just more TV. You're a passive observer and it is all moving by you boringly in a frame.

On a cycle the frame is gone. You're completely in contact with it all. You're in the scene, not just watching it anymore, and the sense of presence is overwhelming."

— Robert M. Pirsig (Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance: An Inquiry Into Values)

When you move around in a car with all the windows closed, there are only 2 vehicle exhaust sounds that you would distinctly hear inside the cabin -one is, of course, the Bullet and the other is a Yamaha RX100. The sound is so apparent that my normally vehicle/gadget illiterate dear wife would stir and ask me, ‘That is a Yamaha, right?’ of course she is right (isn’t she always right?), for the heartbeat of an RX100 is very hard to miss. Whenever I hear that sound, I immediately go back by some 20 years, when I had the pleasure of driving around my very own RX100 -a black RX100 (I had to choose and would not take any other bike or any other color).

The day I took my RX100 to college, I became ‘somebody’. Guys I have never known before wanted to be friends with me; I became a sort of mini celebrity (yes, I am exaggerating a bit, but not much). But, one still has to capitalize on this newly acquired status, and I realized this couple of years later when a colleague, exclaimed, “I never thought YOU will be driving THIS!!!” A good way of thanking someone who offered a lift, in the middle of the night!

I took great pride and took great care of my RX100. Used to wash it and shine the chrome every day. Will be tuning and adjusting the idling or scraping the carbon off the spark plug. If I had to sit somewhere I would normally put my bike on centre-stand and sit on my Rx100. I took it to the best mechanic in town, who specializes in Yamaha and also someone who loves bikes (the second attribute was every important). Today, I sometimes wonder where that passion has gone; it is true that I am quite detached when it comes to my car and view it as just a mode of transportation. I am reminded of the quote I read somewhere, “Four wheels move the body. Two wheels move the soul”; that probably explains!

Recently I had the opportunity to drive my old RX100 (I can’t say ‘my’ as it is currently owned by a cousin, who was kind enough to let me drive for a while – of course with a thumping heart I am sure), the old bugger was as good as it was 20 years ago. Obviously between the two of us the RX100 had aged more gracefully! They don’t make bikes like this anymore!

There are many memories associated with this bike (with great reluctance I call it with a lack of identity –Bike). I vividly remember the day I took my wife (then fiancée) out for the first time and it was on this very vahana. We went around from Nungambakkam to Greams Road and the bends around the crooked College Road is still fresh in our collective memory.

A quick anecdote to end this blog; one of those days when zipping down the Bannerghatta road at Blore, my best friend (Happy Birthday, Irshaad ) was sitting behind, tears streaming, he hollered, “I don’t know how you are driving, I can hardly open my eyes!”, and I hollered back, “close them, just as I have closed mine!!!”....

Cheers to those many rides.

Farewell Waltz

Just completed 'Farewell Waltz' by leading Czech author Milan Kundera. The 'Farewell Waltz' is a dark comedy at the outer layer, but, underneath, is a very poignant, political novel with a touch of magical realism. The original Czech version was published in the early 70’s but was banned during the communist regime for the political undertones in the narration till 1989.

The story unfolds over five days in a small spa town with 8 contrasting characters and has commentaries on relationship, religion, politics –all with lightness and a searing satire. The end was a bit sudden and sad (although Mr. Kundera does not delve on the sadness) but overall the book was a fine read. This is my first Kundera and surely not going to be the last.

Couple of quotes from the book (all of these are dialogues between the characters):

- 'To come to the conclusion that there is no difference between guilty and the victims is to abandon all hope. And that, my girl, is what is called hell.

-'There isn't a man in this world who isn't capable, with a relatively light heart, of sending a fellow human to his death. At any rate I've never met one. If men one day come to change in this regard, they'll lose a basic human attribute. They'll no longer be men but creatures of another species'.
'You people are wonderful!'... 'When you turn everybody into murderers your own murders stop being crimes and just become an inevitable human attribute'.

Both the quotes are in reference to the political situation in Czech during the 1970s; when uprising and suppression of these uprisings thru capital punishment was a norm. After a while the roles reversed the revolutionaries moved to power and persecution of the earlier rulers started, hence there is a blur of victims and the guilty.

Second quote is a dialogue between 2 characters when they discuss about human nature and how we will punish a fellow being with certain happiness (sadistic pleasure if you will); History is strewn with people who stand testimony to this statement.

And finally the most interesting, “All I know is that I could never say with complete conviction: Man is a wonderful being and I want to reproduce him”. Again, this is a dialogue between 2 characters in the book where one gives out reasons why he will never sire a child! What a powerful reason -I have tried this life, but do not find in good enough that I will recommend for someone else!

Feeling an emptiness that follows the completion of a good book!

Following Fish by Samanth Subramanian.

Travel and cooking are 2 of my (many) passions! I just love travelogues. I have already written about Bill Bryson here, the other writer I recently discovered and loved is Paul Theroux. An unexpected but good read was Che Guevara's ‘The Motorcycle Diaries’ - of course that is not just any travelogue.

Travelogues just take you to distant and mystical lands for a few hundred rupees and you could do the journey by just sitting on your couch and without the travel fatigue.

I picked up 'Following Fish', without any knowledge about the book or the author. I was a bit skeptical, given the drab cover and a fishy title :)! Since it involved both travel and food, I could not resist. To my pleasant surprise, it indeed turned out to be a wonderful read for a weekend.

The book is divided into 9 essays and it starts from Kolkata and its famous Hilsa and rightfully so, as Kolkata is the food capital (at least for seafood and sweets) and Hilsa is the queen of fishes.

The journey takes a detour inland to Hyderabad where Samanth visits the Goud's family for the famous fish treatment for his Asthma and returns skeptical than before.

The best part of the book is the essay in search of the best toddy and karimeen in Kerala and the one about the Mangalore fish curry comes a close second. The journey continues to Goa (of course), Mumbai and ends at Gujarat. Befittingly, for Gujarat, the last essay talks about the huge fishing boat building industry rather than the cuisine.

The writing is easy and almost like a note from a friend and lyrical at times and sparkling with humor all the time. The author draws in from a host of other great writers and sprinkles their quotes throughout the book. The essays are full of colorful characters and their interesting stories - this is the book's greatest strength.

The book also touches upon the cultural, ecological issues of the day, talks about the dwindling fishes in our seas, and the sandless beaches of Goa, where the tourist industry is eating into the fishing industry. 'Goa - A state that had come to be unfortunately infected with the idleness of its guests'.

This is Samanth’s first book and I hope he continues to write in this fashion for a long time. May he continue to be the 'discoverer of people, a finder-out of stories'.

Iconoclast - Gregory Berns

The dictionary (http://www.thefreedictionary.com) definition of an Iconoclast:
iconoclast [aɪˈkɒnəˌklæst]
n
1. a person who attacks established or traditional concepts, principles, laws, etc.

But the general understanding from this book (at least for me) is that an iconoclast is someone who breaks through barriers (both internal and external) and sells his Idea to make an impact on the society (for the betterment of the society) and, of course, makes some money and success in the bargain!

Gregory Berns is a leading Neuroeconomist and the Distinguished Chair of Neuroeconomics at Emory University, where he is a professor in the department of Psychiatry and Economics! In this latest book, 'Iconoclast', Mr. Berns explains an iconoclast's ability to think outside the box (I tried to avoid this cliché) through the brain's biological functions and tells us how to harness these powers -including an appendix (Iconoclast's Pharmacopeia) on drugs that can enhance the iconoclastic powers! – this appendix, I specially found to be very interesting!

What makes this book even more interesting is that, Mr. Berns connects these theories to the many real life iconoclasts (including Florence Nightingale, Jackie Robinson, the Dixie Chicks, Pablo Picasso, Richard Feynman and Steve Jobs) and provides valuable insights around the central theme of the book.

Many books are termed as life changing (probably for the author :) ) and this is such a book. According to Mr. Berns; an iconoclast has three traits that differentiate them from the others:
1. Will view things differently - perception
2. Overcome their fear of failure - Fear factor
3. Have great social skills - Network

View things differently: Brain runs on very little power (around 40 watts -if you must know) and hence will conserve power wherever possible. In the process of this conservation, our brain uses perception gained from experiences to form ideas; so to think differently (like an icon) we need to avoid these brain shortcuts and bombard the brain with new information, change in routines and novel experiences.

Overcome the fear factor: Novel experiences stimulate the fear factor in us and we need to overcome this fear to succeed, fear is a major success inhibitor. The author describes options to overcome (rewire the brain) this stress, by accepting (preconditioning), by avoiding unpleasant associations (blocking) and by developing a don’t care attitude (develop a thick skin). Even a short physical stress (exercise) can be used to overcome long term mental stress.

Learn to network: Developing and nurturing good ideas is not sufficient, one must sell these ideas to others and this can be achieved through strong networking skills (Picasso Vs van Gogh). One has to build a social network with the realization that the brain works in a 'tit for tat' basis (a good deed will be reciprocated), maintain a good reputation and constantly being in touch with the social network (breed familiarity).

This is it… three traits that can make you an icon. Are there only these 3 differences between an iconoclast and an aspirant? I don't think so, but these are some good starting points for the Icon to be!

The book drags a bit in the middle, but as mentioned earlier, the relative stories from the lives of icons makes it interesting and keeps us going (including Dixie Chicks as one of icons was stretching it a bit far).

Some good quotes from the book:
-Perception is a process that is learned through experience, which is both a curse and an opportunity for change. P. 8
-Unfamiliarity forces the brain to discard its usual categories of perception and create new ones. P. 33
-The more radical and novel the change, the greater the likelihood of new insights being generated. To think like an iconoclast, you need novel experiences. P. 57-58.
-The critical fears that inhibit people from sharing their ideas: the fear of being rejected. At its core, this fear has its origin in social pressure, which is one of the most common of human phobias. Pp.77-78
-Groups that allow for minority opinions are statistically more likely to make better decisions than groups that require unanimity. P.103
-A group with a lot of diversity among its members is more likely to arrive at a good decision than a group that is composed of members who are alike. P.104.
-The brain is lazy. It changes only when it has to. And the conditions that consistently force the brain to rewire itself are when it confronts something novel. Novelty equals learning, and learning means physical rewiring of the brain. P. 199.

Bill Bryson

My wife calls me the most boring person in his 30s (very late 30s), for, it is not very often that I break into a laughter or even a smile. It is not an exaggeration to say that I am emotionally as flat as a warm beer. So, whenever she sees me chuckle she orders a cake to celebrate and these celebrations happen very often when I am reading a book by Bill Bryson.

Bill Bryson was born in Des Moines, Iowa (1951), spent most of his professional life (as a Journalist) in the UK, moved back to US very briefly and moved again to England. In the process he wrote two wonderful books: 'Notes from a Small Island', a travelogue across 'United Kingdom', just before moving back to US and 'I am a Stranger Here Myself' - a compilation of his weekly column on the changes that have happened to the US in his absence. Today, he is probably the best selling non-fictional author, surely the most loved. It is not an exaggeration when Chicago Sun-Times says that, "Bill Bryson could write an essay about dryer lint or fever reducers and still make us laugh out loud."

I got introduced to Bill Bryson on the 21st of July 2004, when i brought his popular science book "A Short History of Nearly Everything", in a small, excuse for a book shop at the Pune airport (finally, some use of noting down the date and place of purchase of a book!). 'The Short History of Nearly Everthing' is a wonderful compilation of, as the title suggests, a short history of nearly everything, right from the big bang, thru the early stages of our planet, evolution, and an impressive cover of various developments in science. All of which is told in an engaging, dry 'Bryson' humor.

It all starts from an admission that he is not familiar with science and how science books at school were a bore (they still are!) and one fine day in a trans Atlantic flight he was struck by the realization of how little he knew and became curious to know more; how lucky for us! This book must be a mandatory study at every high school! The book really shows us how little we know of the planet we call home and even about ourselves. It is a huge seller internationally and won the Aventis Prize for Science Books as well as the Descartes Science Communication Prize.

After finishing this book, I hunted for all the other books written by Mr. Bryson have managed to read whatever is available in the market! All of them written with the same great wit and a style that is so endearing.

BTW, I have just got home his latest book 'At Home" and my dear wife is ordering for cakes!

Here is a sample chapter from his book "I'm a Stranger Here Myself" -an absolute joy.

His other books:

The Life and Times of the Thunderbolt Kid
Bryson's Dictionary of Troublesome Words
Bill Bryson's African Diary
In a Sunburned Country - Travel - Australia
I'm a Stranger Here Myself
A Walk in the Woods
The Lost Continent: Travels in Small-Town America (1989)
Neither Here Nor There: Travels in Europe (1991)
Notes from a Small Island (1995)
Made in America: An Informal History of the English Language in the United States (1998)
Shakespeare: The World as Stage (2007)
And the latest:
At Home: A Short History of Private Life (2010)

King Corn - Documentary

Couple of days back, I had a chance to watch the documentary, King Corn thru NetFlix “watch instantly” option. BTW – this worked very well. There was no disturbance/buffering when I watched it; it also “remembers" where I left when I resumed viewing in a different machine.

This movie is produced by 2 college grads – Ian Cheney and Curtis Ellis - alarmed by the obesity epidemic and ubiquitous presence of corn in almost all processed foods, they move from Boston, MA to Greene, Iowa to grow and farm an acre of corn. During this period, they try to trace the corn from fields to the food system and come across many troubling questions about how and what we eat.

Though the farming aspect of the film is slightly boring, the film makers have captured the viewer’s interest by graphically presenting the data on where the “manufactured” corn goes – to sweetener industry for High fructose corn syrup, to feed lots for cows and chickens for fattening etc. America has moved from small farm owners to big corporation thanks to the technology improvement in farming practices. For example, the movie shows/says that an acre of land takes about just 18 minutes to plant corn seeds. Corn yield per acre in 1970 was 86 Bushels whereas in 2007 - 180. Technological improvements in the farm yield, is direct result of farm subsidies (introduced thru the farm bill (1973) by Earl Butz) which makes farming corn a profitable one. This farm bill was instrumental in making the food cheaper and resulting in more disposable income available to amercian families.

If you take McDonald's meal, you don't realize it when you eat it, but you're eating corn. Beef has been corn-fed, Soda is corn. Even the French fries. Half of the calories in the French fries come from the fat they're fried in, which is liable to be either corn or soy oil. Everything in your plate is corn. - Michael Pollan, UC Berkeley, in King Corn

The upside of the farm bill is - food became cheaper and made americans to spend just 10% of their income on food in 2009 (from 22% in 1949) - one of the lowest in the world. Industrialization of food also made food available throughout the year. Politically, a noble and a electorally powerful goal too.

The reductions in cost and year round availability of food - took its toll on human health. All animals (cows, pigs, chickens) are made to eat just corn, because corn is made cheaper thru subsidies. These animals are not evolved to eat grains 100% (including humans, of course, but that is for a different day).

To quote from natural news on the effects of forced grain feeding for animals, "Ruminant cattle, like cows and sheep, possess a special digestive system in which grasses are converted into digestible nutrients. Unlike humans who are unable to properly assimilate grasses and their nutrients, these animals are able to convert the plant cellulose into protein and fats. The result is a meat composition of roughly a 1:1 ratio of omega-3 to omega-6 fatty acids with omega-3 dominating slightly.

Grains, disturbs the cow's digestive system that, unless done gradually, can kill the animal. "Feedlot bloat", a term used to describe the buildup of trapped gas in the rumen of the animal, is the primary reason why feedlot cattle must be fed antibiotics and hormones in order to keep them alive. Their digestive systems are unable to process the immense amounts of starch in their feed, turning their pH from neutral to acid and causing them to contract a myriad of diseases".

The health impact for humans are also discussed in the movie; Whether the corn gets to sweetener industry for High Fructose Corn Syrup or it gets to the cows/chicken/pigs as food – everything comes to us in the form of milk/yogurt/jelly/soda/bread/meat – what we consume. And it changes the human metabolism considerably causing life style diseases including Type II Diabetes and heart disease.

All in all, worth watching documentary and take an informed decision on what to consume.

Pink Floyd

I am not a great fan of Pink Floyd. Yes, like everyone who grew up in the 80s, I have listened to the Another Brick in the Wall and loved the video and applauded what the song and video stood for. Otherwise I go for something that is a bit on the milder side.

Recently, fortunately, came across a couple of songs from Pink Floyd and the lyrics just blew my mind away. The band is known for its great lyrics and like any great art form, the interpretation is usually left to us.

Time

For me, these lines are biographical, my biography! Probably, yours too! When I was young, just wasted all the time waiting for someone to show me the way and now I am always chasing something or the other, in the meanwhile Time is just slipping away.

Ticking away the moments that make up a dull day
You fritter and waste the hours in an offhand way
Kicking around on a piece of ground in your home town
Waiting for someone or something to show you the way
Tired of lying in the sunshine
Staying home to watch the rain
And you are young and life is long
And there is time to kill today
And then one day you find
Ten years have got behind you
No one told you when to run
You missed the starting gun
And you run, and you run to catch up with the sun, but it's sinking
Racing around to come up behind you again
The sun is the same in a relative way, but you're older
Shorter of breath and one day closer to death
Every year is getting shorter
Never seem to find the time
Plans that either come to nought
Or half a page of scribbled lines
Hanging on in quiet desparation is the English way
The time is gone
The song is over

Wish you were here

This song is said to a tribute to Syd Barrett, one of the original members and a genius, who had a mental breakdown possibly due to heavy drug usage. You can, of course, interpret this in many ways and relate it to your relationship with someone. Wonderful guitar solo.

How I wish, how I wish you were here
We're just two lost souls swimming in a fish bowl
Year after year
Running over the same old ground
What have we found?
The same old fears
Wish you were here

Track your Plaque - Book Review

How often do we come across news wherein a friend or a relative suffered a heart attack and had to die all of a sudden?

Do you know that the conventional tests (HDL, LDL, Triglycerides, Total Cholesterol, Treadmill test) for assessing whether a person has a risk for future heart attack are woefully inadequate? Meaning, even after all the above are performed on time (with results are considered normal range) – still that person can experience a fatal/non fatal heart attack?

Very often we hear that an apparently otherwise healthy individual suffering from heart disease had to undergo bypass surgery or had to operate with stents etc.

If you want to find answers for this and to educate how to protect yourself – you have to read Track your Plaque book. Dr. William Davis addresses heart disease and what causes heart attacks, how we can identify the risk one has against heart disease, how we can improve upon those parameters through life style changes, diet and medicines.

Why this book? Don’t we have hospitals for cardiovascular care and incase if someone has heart disease – he/she can get better treatment in the hospital, why read this book and make changes to life style among other things?

From Dr Davis's own words - Cardiac care is big business. As a nation, US spent $59 billion on cardiovascular care per year (American Heart Association, 2002). Annual hospital revenues for bypass surgery total $25 billion. Thirty percent of hospital revenues and 50% of profits are from cardiac care. Heart care to a hospital is like the Accord is to Honda, or Windows is to Microsoft—it’s a hot seller.

We live in an age when hospitals measure their success by the number of coronary bypass surgeries they perform. Incredibly, it is still easier to get a bypass operation than it is to get good information on heart disease prevention. There are even billboards on the highways advertising bypass surgery.

Second – this book explains that plaque take decades to grow (for most people) in the arteries and by taking right steps and actions at the right time (not when taken to ER) – we can successfully regress it. This is not big money to you or for the hospital. You can achieve this at much lesser cost than a bypass or an operation involving stents etc. So hospitals are not going to be advertising preventative things to you and me over TV and media. There is no money for them in this. It is your responsibility to protect yourself.

This book explains that - non-invasive 10 min scanning of the arteries for calcium deposits using an Electron Beam Tomography (EBT) Scanner. Based on the scan results, the cardiologist will assign a risk score to the patient, and will order additional blood tests least of which is LDL, HDL, triglycerides and Total cholesterol. Not that they are not important. There are more “definitive” tests that can/need to be done today and identify our current state of Cardio parameters rather than relying on the same old LDL, HDL and triglycerides. A good result in LDL, HDL test does not mean that one is not going to have heart attack.

Based on those results – the patient can work with the Doctor and identify what needs to be done for improving the odds.

One thing I wanted to mention – in the changes that need to be done to improve health - food/fats – the Dr and the author Dr. William Davis argues against saturated fat. He castigates that saturated fat is unhealthy and is not required for the body. In fact it is just the opposite. Second he also says you can consume Canola oil which I do not agree. Vegetable oils (Corn oil, cottonseed, rapeseed etc) are a menace and humans are not evolved to consume that in industrial quantities, which we do . Third he also mentioned that Oat bran can be consumed – I am against it. Oats raise blood sugar and it cannot be good for anyone’s health including Cardio parameters. Recently William Davis wrote in his blog that he has changed his mind on Oats.

Dr. William Davis also runs a program called Track your Plaque. All of the concepts explained in the book – you can also have it done thru this program.

The key takeaway is - artery plaques can be identified in humans using non-invasive techniques, additional blood tests will need to be done to identify what caused the plaque, adopt life style including medicines, supplements and diet and you can regress the plaque.

A must read for anyone who is interested in staying healthy and not wanting to give a surprise to oneself or family.

The Prestige

Nolan brothers make movies that respect the intelligence of the audience and even challenge the viewers to look beyond the ordinary. I watched 'The Prestige' last week and was thrilled to find that this movie was no exception.

'The Prestige' revolves around the rivalry between two stage magicians during the early 20th century in London. The rivalry turns into obsession for an ultimate illusion and both men pay a heavy price in the bargain. The movie has wonderful twists and turns and will keep the viewer guessing. Even after a week, I am going back to the movie again and again as I recollect the hints the director left here and there.

The movie adopts a typical Nolan brother's non-linear style of story telling and goes back and forth. 'The Prestige' weaves reality in the story, by bringing in the character of Tesla and his legendary struggle with Edison, the rivalry between these two real life giants run parallel (at least for a while), to the rivalry of the reel magicians. (Tesla worked with Edi­son dur­ing his early years as a scientist, but split and worked against him after a bit­ter fight. Edi­son was a mean and manip­u­la­tive sci­en­tist; they were fight­ing for the stan­dard­iza­tion of cur­rent, Edi­son for DC and Tesla for AC; their fights were leg­endary. The pop­u­lar­ity of AC today proves who won the “cur­rent wars”:-))

The cast includes Hugh Jackman and, Christian Bale as Robert Angier and Alfred Borden - the obsessed magicians, and David Bowie as Nikola Tesla. It also stars Michael Caine as Cutter the stage engineer, who designs and manages the illusions from behind the scenes, Scarlett Johansson as the attractive stage assistant, at her seductive best, who falls in love with Borden. Although all the actors have given their best; watch out for Michale Caine as he weaves his magic yet again and proves that he is the master, even at the ripe age of 76.

Watch 'The Prestige' to appreciate the craft of story telling and for Caine's performance and "watch it closely".

Read Toto's review here

Black Swan

I was watching this program on a business channel last week (I rarely commit such a sin, but it was one of those days) the program was on: "How markets will behave in 2010", with great dismay I watch an expert talk (with great authority) that the market will cross 20k in 2010. The market will need a lot of Bull (pun intended) to cross 20k, the man was doing his bit. I am sure you have the same feeling of dismay while you switch to one of those news channels and hear the pundits predict a poll outcome.

I have seen the head of sales and marketing of my company make a series of calls to his contacts at critical client organizations and conclude and report back that we are not going to be severely affected by the slowdown, of course he was wrong, we were not spared and neither were our clients (this was in 2000 - 01). We have seen this happen over and over again, especially in the current globalized economy, Chaos Theory rules. A butterfly flap in New York will crash (or push up) the markets in Tokyo. We have seen many predictions and decisions based on past data/experience going awry in business and in our day to day life. This is the theme of Black Swan, a multimillion copy seller by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an extremely complex character, he is the grandson and great grandson of former deputy prime ministers of Lebanon (his grandfather and his great grandfather were both deputy prime ministers of Lebanon), he is a mathematician who prefers to call himself a philosopher, had a short career as a trader and investment banker in many leading banks (although, he is very skeptical about the many models used for trading). Later he started Empirica a hedge fund that trades in options and then retired from trading in 2004 (he continues to be an adviser for Empirica) and incidentally Empirica made a few billions during the recent market crash. He is a distinguished professor and of course he is the author of hugely successful books, Fooled by Randomness and later Black Swan. He has sold more than 2.7 million copies in some 31 languages. He never watches television and never reads newspaper! Hope I covered the many facets of Taleb. Here is a write up by Malcolm Gladwell on Taleb (this write up is also a part of the new book by Gladwell titled "What the Dog Saw").

Taleb strongly believes (and I would agree) that we lack the ability to predict events that are rare but have great impact, he states that there is no difference between the person in a position of power ( A deputy prime minister of Lebanon) and his car driver when it comes to knowing the way events are going to play out. Both believed that the Lebanon war would end soon, but it took 15 years when you look at most of our ministers you would readily agree. The difference is that the qualified think that they have some privileged info and the unqualified does not think so and puts the burden on fate/God.

Taleb talks about Inductive Reasoning and why it will fail, the title of the book is a good example of inductive reasoning. Let me explain, since people in Europe had never seen a black swan, they thought all swans were white. In fact there used to be a terms about Black Swans that people used when they wanted to refer something improbable (I would rather see a black swan before I see you coming on time!) and the sighting of a single black swan in Australia blew away the belief held for centuries. Inductive reasoning is generalization, we tend to generalize with specific set of (past) data and when this generalization proves to be wrong, it is often with disastrous results. Mike Gatting had seen many spinners before and Australia is not a country that has produced decent spinners in the past (Rajan to confirm). He would have thought that this is yet another bloke from down under and this first Warne delivery against England (known as the Ball of the Century or the Gatting Ball) was a complete Black Swan, the look on Gatting’s face was priceless.

Black Swans can bring good fortune too; the explosion of IT in India is a Black Swan - at least for the many graduates who passed out after 1991.

Black Swan events are random, hard to predict and rare events that create high-impact (Outliers). Taleb, defines black swans as below:
1. Hard to predict (based on historical information)
2. Has disastrous effect
3. Explained after the occurrence of the event by experts.

This has not been an easy book for me... but it is entertaining never the less and been an information overload and introduced many useful terms for sure : platonicity, narrative fallacy, modernistan, falsifiability; to name a few). I found the style to be contentions, probably a bit too aggressive and egoistic. The (repeated) digs he has at the cost of many economists and statisticians are at times in poor taste, so are his digs at the French.

Taleb also gives 10 points/principles to a Black Swan proof world, can be read here with description. Giving below some that I liked a lot:

• No socialization of losses and privatization of gains.
• People who were driving a school bus blindfolded (and crashed it) should never be given a new bus.
• Counter-balance complexity with simplicity.
• Do not give children sticks of dynamite, even if they come with a warning .
• Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence. Governments should never need to “restore confidence”.

In our everyday life we come across many Black Swan events and hence it is important to approach each day with a fresh perspective and leave behind preconceived notions.

Try this (from the book):
All Snoogles are Boogles.
You see a Boogle.
Is that a Snoogle?

Spend a minute and you will get it. I tried this on my daughter and explained here the logic and it was an interesting experience, she thought that I had finally gone crazy completely:-)

The answer is 'may be'.